The takeaway
Alumis Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 2 years of data — strongest in March (+35.2%) and softest in April (−42.8%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 50% of years, averaging +17.6%, about +15.4 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Alumis Inc's most dependable month has been March, higher in 1 of 1 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in March (+34.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−44.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is Alumis Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Alumis Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Not enough recent March history to say whether the pattern still holds.
Figures are the typical (median) March return and how often it rose — the last 1 years versus the last 2(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 2-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: March, up in all 1 Marches while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+35.2%) and median (+35.2%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is also the calendar's calmest month, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 0.0% spread), and even its worst March in 2 years lost only 35.2% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: March has cleared the S&P 500 by +34.2 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages March only about 56% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: August and October have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−42.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in April, February, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −42.8% April in 2025 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: March aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 2-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (March), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2024 its best month (March, +35.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −42.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
March has been the strongest, averaging +35.2% and closing higher in its one year on record since 2024.
It's the weakest, averaging −42.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade