The takeaway
Aris Mining Corporation shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in September (+8.6%) and softest in October (−4.8%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 80% of years, averaging +6.3%, about +4.2 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Aris Mining Corporation's most dependable month has been September, higher in 9 of 10 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 10% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+8.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−5.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is Aris Mining Corporation’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Aris Mining Corporation’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, September has closed higher 100% of the time versus 90% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) September return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: September, up in 9 of 10 Septembers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
A typical September brings +5.6%, a shade under the +8.6% average. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even September ranges by 13.2% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: September has cleared the S&P 500 by +8.7 points above the index. It bucks the broad tape, besides: September lifts just 39% of stocks across the market.
A few other months pull their weight: February, March, and April have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−4.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in October, August, and June. Its roughest month on record was a −38.3% January in 2016 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
September has now closed higher 6 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Septembers run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: September aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (September), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (September, +8.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −4.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
September has been the strongest, averaging +8.6% and closing higher in 9 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade