The takeaway
Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in December (+9.2%) and softest in September (+1.7%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 44% of years, averaging +0.3%, roughly 1.8 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares's most dependable month has been December, higher in 8 of 10 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 33% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2019 | — | — | — | |||||||||
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| 2016 | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in February (+19.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in August (−5.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, December has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) December return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and December is the anchor — it has closed higher in 8 of 10 Decembers, the steadiest beat on its year.
Read it with one caveat: the average (+9.2%) runs well ahead of the median (+3.7%), so a handful of outsized years — not steady strength — do much of the lifting. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even December ranges by 14.6% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — December has outpaced the S&P 500 by +8.2 points on average. Few peers keep such company in December — the typical stock clears it just 58% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — February, March, and May have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, September is the year's low point, though even there the stock has stayed positive on average (+1.7%), a sign every month leans up, and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in August, April, and November. Its roughest month on record was a −92.3% August in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a stock this dependable in December, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (December), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (December, +9.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, +1.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
December has been the strongest, averaging +9.2% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest month, but it has still averaged a small gain (+1.7%) — quiet rather than genuinely bad.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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