The takeaway
BJs Restaurants Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in April (+13.8%) and softest in September (−4.3%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 30% of years, averaging −5.0%, roughly 7.1 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
BJs Restaurants Inc's most dependable month has been April, higher in 8 of 10 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (+12.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−8.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is BJs Restaurants Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating BJs Restaurants Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, April has closed higher 60% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) April return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: April, up in 8 of 10 Aprils while the other eleven tend to blur together.
The headline flatters a touch — its +13.8% average sits well above the +6.4% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Aprils. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even April ranges by 26.4% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: April has cleared the S&P 500 by +12.1 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages April only about 55% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, February, and October have also closed higher more often than not. On the other side of the ledger, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−4.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, July, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −58.7% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
At its steadiest, April strung together 8 straight positive years. The pattern has softened of late, April's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: April aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (April), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (April, +13.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −4.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
April has been the strongest, averaging +13.8% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade