The takeaway
Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 2 years of data — strongest in July (+10.8%) and softest in February (−16.8%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 100% of years, averaging +10.8%, about +8.7 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC)'s most dependable month has been July, higher in 1 of 1 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+10.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in February (−16.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC)’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC)’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Not enough recent July history to say whether the pattern still holds.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 1 years versus the last 2(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 2-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. July stands out, higher in all 1 Julys, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+10.8%) and median (+10.8%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is also the calendar's calmest month, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 0.0% spread), and even its worst July in 2 years lost only 10.8% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: July has cleared the S&P 500 by +8.7 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages July only about 61% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — April–July forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. On the other side of the ledger, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−16.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in February, August, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −16.8% February in 2025 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 2-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (July), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2024 its best month (July, +10.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −16.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +10.8% and closing higher in its one year on record since 2024.
It's the weakest, averaging −16.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade