The takeaway
Caterpillar Inc shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in November (+5.3%) and softest in March (+2.0%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 80% of years, averaging +6.0%, about +3.8 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Caterpillar Inc's most dependable month has been November, higher in 9 of 10 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+4.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−2.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is Caterpillar Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Caterpillar Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 80% of the time versus 90% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and November is the anchor — it has closed higher in 9 of 10 Novembers, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+5.3%) and median (+6.6%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — November has outpaced the S&P 500 by +3.0 points on average. Few peers keep such company in November — the typical stock clears it just 62% of the time.
November anchors a run, too: the September-through-January window has been the stock's reliable season. The weaker half of the year is plainer: March is the year's low point, though even there the stock has stayed positive on average (+2.0%), a sign every month leans up, and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in April. Its roughest month on record was a −19.8% October in 2018 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a stock this dependable in November, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (November, +5.3%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, +2.0%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +5.3% and closing higher in 9 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest month, but it has still averaged a small gain (+2.0%) — quiet rather than genuinely bad.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade