The takeaway
Commerce Bancshares Inc shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in November (+5.7%) and softest in September (−1.7%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 70% of years, averaging +2.3% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Commerce Bancshares Inc's most dependable month has been November, higher in 8 of 10 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+3.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−4.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is Commerce Bancshares Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Commerce Bancshares Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and November is the anchor — it has closed higher in 8 of 10 Novembers, the steadiest beat on its year.
Read it with one caveat: the average (+5.7%) runs well ahead of the median (+3.3%), so a handful of outsized years — not steady strength — do much of the lifting. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — November has outpaced the S&P 500 by +3.4 points on average. Few peers keep such company in November — the typical stock clears it just 62% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — February, April, and July have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−1.7%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, September, and May. Its roughest month on record was a −20.3% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Novembers run ahead of the earlier years.
For a stock this dependable in November, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (November, +5.7%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −1.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +5.7% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade