The takeaway
Caledonia Mining Corporation shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in March (+9.3%) and softest in February (−1.9%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 70% of years, averaging +9.3%, about +7.2 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Caledonia Mining Corporation's most dependable month has been March, higher in 8 of 10 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in March (+8.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−6.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is Caledonia Mining Corporation’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Caledonia Mining Corporation’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, March has closed higher 100% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) March return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: March, up in 8 of 10 Marches while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+9.3%) and median (+6.9%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even March ranges by 11.5% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: March has cleared the S&P 500 by +8.3 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages March only about 56% of the time.
Only July comes anywhere near it for reliability. The weaker half of the year is plainer: February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−1.9%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in November, June, and February. Its roughest month on record was a −39.3% November in 2016 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
March has now closed higher 5 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Marches run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: March aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (March), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (March, +9.3%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −1.9%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
March has been the strongest, averaging +9.3% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade