The takeaway
Cogent Biosciences Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in July (+66.8%) and softest in September (−8.9%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 75% of years, averaging +66.8%, about +64.7 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Cogent Biosciences Inc's most dependable month has been July, higher in 6 of 8 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 13% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+64.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in December (−10.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is Cogent Biosciences Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Cogent Biosciences Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 80% of the time versus 75% across the last 8 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: July, up in 6 of 8 Julys while the other eleven tend to blur together.
The headline flatters a touch — its +66.8% average sits well above the +11.8% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Julys. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even July ranges by 155.1% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: July has cleared the S&P 500 by +64.7 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages July only about 61% of the time.
Only August comes anywhere near it for reliability. The weaker half of the year is plainer: September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−8.9%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in December, September, and April. Its roughest month on record was a −45.5% November in 2019 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, July's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 8-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2018 its best month (July, +66.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −8.9%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +66.8% and closing higher in 6 of 8 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −8.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade