The takeaway
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in January (+1.6%) and softest in November (−1.4%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 50% of years, averaging +0.3%, roughly 1.8 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund's most dependable month has been January, higher in 8 of 10 years; November has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+1.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−3.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, January has closed higher 100% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. January stands out, higher in 8 of 10 Januaries, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+1.6%) and median (+2.3%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: January has cleared the S&P 500 by +1.8 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages January only about 53% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: March, April, and May have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: November has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−1.4%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, July, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −19.2% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
January has now closed higher 5 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Januaries run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: January aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (January), its worst (November), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (January, +1.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (November, −1.4%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
January has been the strongest, averaging +1.6% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade