The takeaway
Invesco DB Oil Fund shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in June (+3.1%) and softest in November (−2.8%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 60% of years, averaging +1.0%, roughly 1.2 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Invesco DB Oil Fund's most dependable month has been June, higher in 8 of 10 years; November has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in June (+2.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−5.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is Invesco DB Oil Fund’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Invesco DB Oil Fund’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, June has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) June return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. June stands out, higher in 8 of 10 Junes, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+3.1%) and median (+4.5%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 4.6% spread). Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: June has cleared the S&P 500 by +2.9 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages June only about 52% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — May–July forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. The weaker half of the year is plainer: November has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−2.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, October, and April. Its roughest month on record was a −27.2% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: June aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (June), its worst (November), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (June, +3.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (November, −2.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
June has been the strongest, averaging +3.1% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade