The takeaway
DR Horton Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in July (+9.9%) and softest in February (−2.9%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 100% of years, averaging +9.9%, about +7.8 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
DR Horton Inc's most dependable month has been July, higher in 10 of 10 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+7.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−4.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is DR Horton Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating DR Horton Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: July, up in all 10 Julys while the other eleven tend to blur together.
The headline flatters a touch — its +9.9% average sits well above the +6.1% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Julys. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even July ranges by 9.1% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: July has cleared the S&P 500 by +7.8 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages July only about 61% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, March, and August have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−2.9%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in October, February, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −38.0% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
July has now closed higher 10 years running. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (July, +9.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −2.9%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +9.9% and closing higher in all 10 years on record since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade