The takeaway
Toll Brothers Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in November (+6.9%) and softest in October (−1.3%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 70% of years, averaging +5.3%, about +3.1 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Toll Brothers Inc's most dependable month has been November, higher in 8 of 10 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+4.6 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−4.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is Toll Brothers Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Toll Brothers Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 100% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: November, up in 8 of 10 Novembers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+6.9%) and median (+8.1%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is also the calendar's calmest month, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 5.3% spread), and even its worst November in 10 years lost only 1.6% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: November has cleared the S&P 500 by +4.6 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages November only about 62% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, March, and April have also closed higher more often than not. On the other side of the ledger, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−1.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, October, and February. Its roughest month on record was a −50.3% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
November has now closed higher 6 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Novembers run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: November aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (November, +6.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −1.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +6.9% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade