The takeaway
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in July (+1.8%) and softest in June (−0.6%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 80% of years, averaging +1.8% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF's most dependable month has been July, higher in 8 of 10 years; June has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+1.6 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−1.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is iShares MSCI EAFE ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating iShares MSCI EAFE ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and July is the anchor — it has closed higher in 8 of 10 Julys, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+1.8%) and median (+2.6%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. No month is steadier: July's returns vary by just 2.3% year to year, and even its worst July in 10 years lost only 2.4% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Set against the S&P 500, mind, July is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. Few peers keep such company in July — the typical stock clears it just 61% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — January, March, and April have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. On the other side of the ledger, June has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−0.6%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in October, February, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −15.2% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
One run worth flagging just ended: a 5-year streak of positive Julys was snapped by a −1.9% close in 2025. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a fund this dependable in July, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the fund's best month (July), its worst (June), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — July is the firmest (+1.8%) and June the softest (−0.6%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
July has been the strongest, averaging +1.8% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.6% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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