The takeaway
Erasca Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in July (+15.8%) and softest in January (−20.6%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 80% of years, averaging +15.8%, about +13.6 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Erasca Inc's most dependable month has been July, higher in 4 of 5 years; January has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+13.6 pts); it has trailed the market most in January (−20.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is Erasca Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Erasca Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: July, up in 4 of 5 Julys while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+15.8%) and median (+20.5%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even July ranges by 13.7% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: July has cleared the S&P 500 by +13.6 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages July only about 61% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: August, October, and December have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: January has been the soft spot — the weakest of 7 months that average a loss (−20.6%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in January, March, and November. Its roughest month on record was a −41.3% December in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 5-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (January), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2021 its best month (July, +15.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (January, −20.6%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +15.8% and closing higher in 4 of 5 years since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −20.6% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade