The takeaway
Fidelity Investment Grade Bond ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in November (+2.1%) and softest in October (−1.0%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 60% of years, averaging +1.0%, roughly 1.1 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Fidelity Investment Grade Bond ETF's most dependable month has been November, higher in 5 of 5 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+0.6 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−2.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is Fidelity Investment Grade Bond ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Fidelity Investment Grade Bond ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — November. It has closed higher in all 5 Novembers, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+2.1%) and median (+1.6%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Set against the S&P 500, mind, November is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. Few peers keep such company in November — the typical stock clears it just 62% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — April, May, and June have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−1.0%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in April, October, and March.
November has now closed higher 5 years running.
For a fund this dependable in November, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 5-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (November), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2021 its best month (November, +2.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −1.0%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +2.1% and closing higher in all 5 years on record since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.0% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade