The takeaway
Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in July (+0.8%) and softest in October (−0.8%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 80% of years, averaging +0.8%, roughly 1.3 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF's most dependable month has been July, higher in 8 of 10 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+0.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−1.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and July is the anchor — it has closed higher in 8 of 10 Julys, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+0.8%) and median (+0.5%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Few peers keep such company in July — the typical stock clears it just 61% of the time.
July anchors a run, too: the March-through-July window has been the fund's reliable season. The weaker half of the year is plainer: October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−0.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in April, October, and November.
One run worth flagging just ended: a 6-year streak of positive Julys was snapped by a −0.2% close in 2025. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a fund this dependable in July, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the fund's best month (July), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — July is the firmest (+0.8%) and October the softest (−0.8%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
July has been the strongest, averaging +0.8% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade