The takeaway
Frontline Ltd shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in September (+7.9%) and softest in November (−5.4%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 50% of years, averaging +1.1%, roughly 1.1 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Frontline Ltd's most dependable month has been September, higher in 8 of 10 years; November has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+8.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−7.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is Frontline Ltd’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Frontline Ltd’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, September has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) September return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: September, up in 8 of 10 Septembers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+7.9%) and median (+10.6%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even September ranges by 10.1% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: September has cleared the S&P 500 by +8.0 points above the index. It bucks the broad tape, besides: September lifts just 39% of stocks across the market.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — August–October forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. The weaker half of the year is plainer: November has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−5.4%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in November, January, and June. Its roughest month on record was a −32.3% January in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: September aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (September), its worst (November), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (September, +7.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (November, −5.4%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
September has been the strongest, averaging +7.9% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −5.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade