The takeaway
Scorpio Tankers Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in September (+3.6%) and softest in January (−9.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 40% of years, averaging −3.9%, roughly 6.0 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Scorpio Tankers Inc's most dependable month has been September, higher in 7 of 10 years; January has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (+8.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in January (−9.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is Scorpio Tankers Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Scorpio Tankers Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, September has closed higher 100% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) September return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — September. It has closed higher in 7 of 10 Septembers, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+3.6%) and median (+5.1%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Few months are steadier: September's returns vary by just 7.5% year to year. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — September has outpaced the S&P 500 by +3.7 points on average. It is the more striking for the company it keeps — September is a losing month for most of the market, where barely 39% of names gain ground.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — February, April, and May have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. The weaker half of the year is plainer: January has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−9.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in January, July, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −41.2% January in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
September has now closed higher 5 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Septembers run ahead of the earlier years.
For a stock this dependable in September, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the stock's best month (September), its worst (January), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (September, +3.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (January, −9.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
September has been the strongest, averaging +3.6% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −9.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade