The takeaway
Five Star Bancorp shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in July (+7.9%) and softest in March (−10.0%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 100% of years, averaging +7.9%, about +5.7 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Five Star Bancorp's most dependable month has been July, higher in 5 of 5 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+5.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−11.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is Five Star Bancorp’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Five Star Bancorp’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and July is the anchor — it has closed higher in all 5 Julys, the steadiest beat on its year.
Read it with one caveat: the average (+7.9%) runs well ahead of the median (+2.2%), so a handful of outsized years — not steady strength — do much of the lifting. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even July ranges by 8.8% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — July has outpaced the S&P 500 by +5.7 points on average. Few peers keep such company in July — the typical stock clears it just 61% of the time.
July anchors a run, too: the May-through-July window has been the stock's reliable season. The weaker half of the year is plainer: March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−10.0%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, April, and January. Its roughest month on record was a −22.6% March in 2023 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
July has now closed higher 5 years running.
For a stock this dependable in July, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 5-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2021 its best month (July, +7.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −10.0%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +7.9% and closing higher in all 5 years on record since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −10.0% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade