The takeaway
First Trust Nasdaq Semiconductor ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in May (+5.8%) and softest in April (−0.6%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 89% of years, averaging +5.0%, about +2.9 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
First Trust Nasdaq Semiconductor ETF's most dependable month has been May, higher in 8 of 9 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 33% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | ||||||||||||
| 2019 | ||||||||||||
| 2018 | ||||||||||||
| 2017 | ||||||||||||
| 2016 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+5.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−2.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is First Trust Nasdaq Semiconductor ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating First Trust Nasdaq Semiconductor ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, May has closed higher 100% of the time versus 89% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) May return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and May is the anchor — it has closed higher in 8 of 9 Mays, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+5.8%) and median (+9.6%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even May ranges by 8.4% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — May has outpaced the S&P 500 by +5.1 points on average. Few peers keep such company in May — the typical stock clears it just 55% of the time.
May anchors a run, too: the May-through-July window has been the fund's reliable season. The weaker half of the year is plainer: April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−0.6%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in April, March, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −15.2% January in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
May has now closed higher 6 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Mays run ahead of the earlier years.
For a fund this dependable in May, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the fund's best month (May), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (May, +5.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −0.6%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
May has been the strongest, averaging +5.8% and closing higher in 8 of 9 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.6% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade