The takeaway
Defiance Quantum ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in May (+5.1%) and softest in September (−0.2%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 86% of years, averaging +3.4%, about +1.2 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Defiance Quantum ETF's most dependable month has been May, higher in 6 of 7 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 38% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+4.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−2.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is Defiance Quantum ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Defiance Quantum ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, May has closed higher 100% of the time versus 86% across the last 8 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) May return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. May stands out, higher in 6 of 7 Mays, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+5.1%) and median (+8.3%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: May has cleared the S&P 500 by +4.3 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages May only about 55% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — May–July forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. On the other side of the ledger, September is the year's quietest corner, essentially flat on average, and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, April, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −16.0% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
May has now closed higher 6 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Mays run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: May aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 8-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (May), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2018 its best month (May, +5.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −0.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
May has been the strongest, averaging +5.1% and closing higher in 6 of 7 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade