The takeaway
Lithium Americas Corp shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 3 years of data — strongest in September (+60.4%) and softest in January (−16.5%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 50% of years, averaging −0.4%, roughly 2.5 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Lithium Americas Corp's most dependable month has been September, higher in 2 of 2 years; January has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+60.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−18.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is Lithium Americas Corp’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Lithium Americas Corp’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Not enough recent September history to say whether the pattern still holds.
Figures are the typical (median) September return and how often it rose — the last 2 years versus the last 3(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 3-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — September. It has closed higher in all 2 Septembers, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+60.4%) and median (+60.4%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even September ranges by 41.4% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — September has outpaced the S&P 500 by +60.5 points on average. It is the more striking for the company it keeps — September is a losing month for most of the market, where barely 39% of names gain ground.
Only March comes anywhere near it for reliability. The weaker half of the year is plainer: January has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−16.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in April, January, and May. Its roughest month on record was a −37.2% April in 2024 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
For a stock this dependable in September, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 3-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (September), its worst (January), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2023 its best month (September, +60.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (January, −16.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
September has been the strongest, averaging +60.4% and closing higher in all 2 years on record since 2023.
It's the weakest, averaging −16.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade