The takeaway
El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in November (+3.8%) and softest in March (−10.3%).
Right now
In October, the stock has fallen 40% of years, averaging −0.5%, roughly 1.6 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc's most dependable month has been November, higher in 7 of 10 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+3.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−11.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 60% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: November, up in 7 of 10 Novembers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+3.8%) and median (+6.3%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even November ranges by 9.5% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: November has cleared the S&P 500 by +1.4 points above the index. Some of that is a strong month market-wide, mind — November rises for about 62% of stocks — so the tendency is real if not unique.
A few other months pull their weight: June, July, and August have also closed higher more often than not. On the other side of the ledger, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−10.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, February, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −35.3% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: November aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (November, +3.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −10.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +3.8% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −10.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest October track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade