The takeaway
MPLX LP shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in January (+3.0%) and softest in March (−3.3%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 70% of years, averaging +2.3% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
MPLX LP's most dependable month has been January, higher in 8 of 10 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (+5.6 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−4.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is MPLX LP’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating MPLX LP’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, January has closed higher 100% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: January, up in 8 of 10 Januaries while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+3.0%) and median (+6.1%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even January ranges by 9.7% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: January has cleared the S&P 500 by +3.2 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages January only about 53% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: April, June, and July have also closed higher more often than not. On the other side of the ledger, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−3.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, February, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −42.1% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
January has now closed higher 5 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Januaries run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: January aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (January), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (January, +3.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −3.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
January has been the strongest, averaging +3.0% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade