The takeaway
Merlin, Inc. shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 2 years of data — strongest in October (+5.4%) and softest in November (−1.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 100% of years, averaging +0.3%, roughly 1.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Merlin, Inc.'s most dependable month has been October, higher in 1 of 1 years; November has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in October (+4.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−3.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is Merlin, Inc.’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Merlin, Inc.’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Not enough recent October history to say whether the pattern still holds.
Figures are the typical (median) October return and how often it rose — the last 1 years versus the last 2(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 2-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. October stands out, higher in all 1 Octobers, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+5.4%) and median (+5.4%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is also the calendar's calmest month, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 0.0% spread), and even its worst October in 2 years lost only 5.4% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: October has cleared the S&P 500 by +4.4 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages October only about 53% of the time.
The lift is near-universal — strength runs through almost every month of the year, not one window. At the other end of the calendar, November has been the soft spot — the only month to average an outright loss (−1.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in November, July, and December.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: October aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 2-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (October), its worst (November), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2024 its best month (October, +5.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (November, −1.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
October has been the strongest, averaging +5.4% and closing higher in its one year on record since 2024.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade