The takeaway
Nebius Group N.V. shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 2 years of data — strongest in September (+70.8%) and softest in March (−24.9%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 100% of years, averaging +8.2%, about +6.0 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Nebius Group N.V.'s most dependable month has been September, higher in 1 of 1 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+71.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−25.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is Nebius Group N.V.’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Nebius Group N.V.’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Not enough recent September history to say whether the pattern still holds.
Figures are the typical (median) September return and how often it rose — the last 1 years versus the last 2(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 2-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — September. It has closed higher in all 1 Septembers, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+70.8%) and median (+70.8%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. No month is steadier: September's returns vary by just 0.0% year to year, and even its worst September in 2 years lost only 70.8% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — September has outpaced the S&P 500 by +71.0 points on average. It is the more striking for the company it keeps — September is a losing month for most of the market, where barely 39% of names gain ground.
September anchors a run, too: the April-through-October window has been the stock's reliable season. The weaker half of the year is plainer: March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−24.9%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, November, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −24.9% March in 2025 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
For a stock this dependable in September, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 2-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (September), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2024 its best month (September, +70.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −24.9%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
September has been the strongest, averaging +70.8% and closing higher in its one year on record since 2024.
It's the weakest, averaging −24.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade