The takeaway
Trade Desk Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in February (+13.5%) and softest in December (−5.0%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 78% of years, averaging +6.4%, about +4.2 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Trade Desk Inc's most dependable month has been February, higher in 8 of 9 years; December has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | ||||||||||||
| 2019 | ||||||||||||
| 2018 | ||||||||||||
| 2017 | ||||||||||||
| 2016 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+16.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−11.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is Trade Desk Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Trade Desk Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, February has closed higher 80% of the time versus 89% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) February return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and February is the anchor — it has closed higher in 8 of 9 Februaries, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+13.5%) and median (+20.0%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even February ranges by 23.2% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — February has outpaced the S&P 500 by +13.8 points on average. It is the more striking for the company it keeps — February is a losing month for most of the market, where barely 49% of names gain ground.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — April, May, and June have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, December has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−5.0%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, December, and September.
One run worth flagging just ended: a 8-year streak of positive Februaries was snapped by a −40.4% close in 2025. The pattern has softened of late, February's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
For a stock this dependable in February, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (February), its worst (December), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (February, +13.5%) has run well ahead of its worst (December, −5.0%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
February has been the strongest, averaging +13.5% and closing higher in 8 of 9 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −5.0% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade