The takeaway
NMI Holdings Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in August (+7.4%) and softest in March (−7.6%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 50% of years, averaging +3.9%, about +1.7 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
NMI Holdings Inc's most dependable month has been August, higher in 9 of 10 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in August (+7.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−8.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is NMI Holdings Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating NMI Holdings Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, August has closed higher 100% of the time versus 90% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) August return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and August is the anchor — it has closed higher in 9 of 10 Augusts, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+7.4%) and median (+6.8%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even August ranges by 8.7% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — August has outpaced the S&P 500 by +7.1 points on average. Few peers keep such company in August — the typical stock clears it just 52% of the time.
August anchors a run, too: the August-through-January window has been the stock's reliable season. The weaker half of the year is plainer: March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−7.6%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, February, and June. Its roughest month on record was a −52.9% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
August has now closed higher 8 years running. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a stock this dependable in August, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the stock's best month (August), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (August, +7.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −7.6%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
August has been the strongest, averaging +7.4% and closing higher in 9 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −7.6% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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