The takeaway
Northern Oil & Gas Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in November (+17.4%) and softest in October (−8.3%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 40% of years, averaging −1.6%, roughly 3.8 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Northern Oil & Gas Inc's most dependable month has been November, higher in 6 of 10 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+15.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−9.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is Northern Oil & Gas Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Northern Oil & Gas Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 60% of the time versus 60% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a feast-or-famine calendar. November reads as the strong month, higher in 6 of 10 Novembers, but the tale is one of a few outsized years more than steady gains.
Read it with one caveat: the average (+17.4%) runs well ahead of the median (+3.4%), so a handful of outsized years — not steady strength — do much of the lifting. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even November ranges by 38.1% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — November has outpaced the S&P 500 by +15.0 points on average. Some of that is a strong month market-wide, mind — November rises for about 62% of stocks — so the tendency is real if not unique.
Only June comes anywhere near it for reliability. At the other end of the calendar, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 7 months that average a loss (−8.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in October, March, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −53.2% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
Hold it loosely, then: the November tendency is genuine but lumpy, more about the occasional outsized year than a gain to bank on. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (November, +17.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −8.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +17.4% and closing higher in 6 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −8.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade