The takeaway
Par Pacific Holdings Inc shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in November (+6.6%) and softest in October (+0.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 60% of years, averaging +2.7%, about +0.5 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Par Pacific Holdings Inc's most dependable month has been November, higher in 7 of 10 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in June (+4.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−6.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is Par Pacific Holdings Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Par Pacific Holdings Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 80% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: November, up in 7 of 10 Novembers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+6.6%) and median (+5.0%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even November ranges by 14.9% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: November has cleared the S&P 500 by +4.3 points above the index. Some of that is a strong month market-wide, mind — November rises for about 62% of stocks — so the tendency is real if not unique.
A few other months pull their weight: March, July, and September have also closed higher more often than not. On the other side of the ledger, October is the year's quietest corner, essentially flat on average, and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, December, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −58.1% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Novembers run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: November aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (November, +6.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, +0.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +6.6% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest month, but it has still averaged a small gain (+0.2%) — quiet rather than genuinely bad.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade