The takeaway
Rio Tinto ADR shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in December (+5.0%) and softest in October (−1.3%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 80% of years, averaging +2.5% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Rio Tinto ADR's most dependable month has been December, higher in 9 of 10 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in December (+4.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−2.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is Rio Tinto ADR’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Rio Tinto ADR’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, December has closed higher 80% of the time versus 90% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) December return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and December is the anchor — it has closed higher in 9 of 10 Decembers, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+5.0%) and median (+6.1%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — December has outpaced the S&P 500 by +4.0 points on average. Few peers keep such company in December — the typical stock clears it just 58% of the time.
December anchors a run, too: the November-through-January window has been the stock's reliable season. At the other end of the calendar, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−1.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in October, August, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −16.7% June in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
At its steadiest, December strung together 8 straight positive years. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a stock this dependable in December, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the stock's best month (December), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (December, +5.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −1.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
December has been the strongest, averaging +5.0% and closing higher in 9 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade