The takeaway
Regional Management Corp shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in May (+5.5%) and softest in September (−4.0%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 70% of years, averaging +4.2%, about +2.0 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Regional Management Corp's most dependable month has been May, higher in 8 of 10 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+4.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−7.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is Regional Management Corp’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Regional Management Corp’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, May has closed higher 60% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) May return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. May stands out, higher in 8 of 10 Mays, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
A typical May brings +3.7%, a shade under the +5.5% average. It is also the calendar's calmest month, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 6.4% spread), and even its worst May in 10 years lost only 3.2% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: May has cleared the S&P 500 by +4.8 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages May only about 55% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — April–August forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. The weaker half of the year is plainer: September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−4.0%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March and September. Its roughest month on record was a −48.0% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
At its steadiest, May strung together 7 straight positive years. The pattern has softened of late, May's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: May aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (May), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (May, +5.5%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −4.0%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
May has been the strongest, averaging +5.5% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.0% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade