The takeaway
Royalty Pharma Plc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 6 years of data — strongest in November (+4.4%) and softest in September (−4.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 67% of years, averaging −0.5%, roughly 2.6 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Royalty Pharma Plc's most dependable month has been November, higher in 5 of 6 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 17% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| Median return % | ||||||||||||
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| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in June (+12.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in May (−4.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is Royalty Pharma Plc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Royalty Pharma Plc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 80% of the time versus 83% across the last 6 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 6(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 6-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — November. It has closed higher in 5 of 6 Novembers, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
Read it with one caveat: the average (+4.4%) runs well ahead of the median (+2.6%), so a handful of outsized years — not steady strength — do much of the lifting. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — November has outpaced the S&P 500 by +2.0 points on average. Few peers keep such company in November — the typical stock clears it just 62% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — January, February, and March have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−4.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in May, September, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −13.8% October in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, November's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
For a stock this dependable in November, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 6-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2020 its best month (November, +4.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −4.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +4.4% and closing higher in 5 of 6 years since 2020.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade