The takeaway
Stifel Financial Corporation shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in July (+6.2%) and softest in March (−7.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 100% of years, averaging +6.2%, about +4.1 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Stifel Financial Corporation's most dependable month has been July, higher in 10 of 10 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+6.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−8.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is Stifel Financial Corporation’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Stifel Financial Corporation’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: July, up in all 10 Julys while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+6.2%) and median (+5.9%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is also the calendar's calmest month, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 3.6% spread), and even its worst July in 10 years lost only 0.7% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: July has cleared the S&P 500 by +4.1 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages July only about 61% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, April, and August have also closed higher more often than not. On the other side of the ledger, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−7.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, December, and June. Its roughest month on record was a −28.8% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
July has now closed higher 10 years running. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (July, +6.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −7.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +6.2% and closing higher in all 10 years on record since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −7.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade