The takeaway
Toast Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in July (+8.0%) and softest in September (−8.7%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 75% of years, averaging +8.0%, about +5.8 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Toast Inc's most dependable month has been July, higher in 3 of 4 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+6.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in September (−8.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is Toast Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Toast Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 4 years, July has closed higher 75% of the time versus 75% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 4 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — July. It has closed higher in 3 of 4 Julys, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+8.0%) and median (+8.1%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. No month is steadier: July's returns vary by just 7.3% year to year, and even its worst July in 5 years lost only 1.1% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — July has outpaced the S&P 500 by +5.8 points on average. Few peers keep such company in July — the typical stock clears it just 61% of the time.
July anchors a run, too: the May-through-July window has been the stock's reliable season. On the other side of the ledger, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−8.7%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in September, November, and April. Its roughest month on record was a −30.7% January in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
For a stock this dependable in July, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 5-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2021 its best month (July, +8.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −8.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +8.0% and closing higher in 3 of 4 years since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −8.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade