The takeaway
CVR Partners LP shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in May (+0.6%) and softest in August (−6.7%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 70% of years, averaging +3.7%, about +1.5 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
CVR Partners LP's most dependable month has been May, higher in 8 of 10 years; August has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in December (+6.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in August (−7.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is CVR Partners LP’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating CVR Partners LP’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, May has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) May return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — May. It has closed higher in 8 of 10 Mays, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+0.6%) and median (+3.4%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even May ranges by 9.2% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Set against the S&P 500, mind, May is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. Few peers keep such company in May — the typical stock clears it just 55% of the time.
May anchors a run, too: the December-through-May window has been the stock's reliable season. At the other end of the calendar, August has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−6.7%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in August, October, and June. Its roughest month on record was a −48.0% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a stock this dependable in May, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (May), its worst (August), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (May, +0.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (August, −6.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
May has been the strongest, averaging +0.6% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −6.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade