The takeaway
Upstart Holdings Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 6 years of data — strongest in May (+21.4%) and softest in April (−16.6%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 60% of years, averaging +18.7%, about +16.5 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Upstart Holdings Inc's most dependable month has been May, higher in 3 of 5 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+20.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−18.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is Upstart Holdings Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Upstart Holdings Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, May has closed higher 60% of the time versus 60% across the last 6 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) May return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 6(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 6-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a feast-or-famine calendar. May reads as the strong month, higher in 3 of 5 Mays, but the tale is one of a few outsized years more than steady gains.
Read it with one caveat: the average (+21.4%) runs well ahead of the median (+8.1%), so a handful of outsized years — not steady strength — do much of the lifting. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even May ranges by 49.6% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — May has outpaced the S&P 500 by +20.7 points on average.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — January, July, and August have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. The weaker half of the year is plainer: April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−16.6%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in April and September. Its roughest month on record was a −55.4% August in 2023 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Hold it loosely, then: the May tendency is genuine but lumpy, more about the occasional outsized year than a gain to bank on. With a short 6-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (May), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2020 its best month (May, +21.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −16.6%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
May has been the strongest, averaging +21.4% and closing higher in 3 of 5 years since 2020.
It's the weakest, averaging −16.6% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade