The takeaway
Velocity Financial Llc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 6 years of data — strongest in November (+15.4%) and softest in March (−5.8%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 50% of years, averaging −0.1%, roughly 2.2 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Velocity Financial Llc's most dependable month has been November, higher in 5 of 6 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 33% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+13.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−6.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is Velocity Financial Llc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Velocity Financial Llc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 80% of the time versus 83% across the last 6 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 6(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 6-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: November, up in 5 of 6 Novembers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
The headline flatters a touch — its +15.4% average sits well above the +7.9% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Novembers. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even November ranges by 17.7% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: November has cleared the S&P 500 by +13.1 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages November only about 62% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: May, June, and August have also closed higher more often than not. On the other side of the ledger, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−5.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, April, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −45.4% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: November aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 6-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2020 its best month (November, +15.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −5.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +15.4% and closing higher in 5 of 6 years since 2020.
It's the weakest, averaging −5.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade