The takeaway
Vermilion Energy Inc. shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in September (+3.5%) and softest in October (−3.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 50% of years, averaging +1.2%, roughly 0.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Vermilion Energy Inc.'s most dependable month has been September, higher in 7 of 10 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+3.6 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−4.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is Vermilion Energy Inc.’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Vermilion Energy Inc.’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, September has closed higher 60% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) September return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. September stands out, higher in 7 of 10 Septembers, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+3.5%) and median (+3.5%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even September ranges by 21.8% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: September has cleared the S&P 500 by +3.6 points above the index. It bucks the broad tape, besides: September lifts just 39% of stocks across the market.
A few other months pull their weight: March, June, and November have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−3.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, October, and August. Its roughest month on record was a −70.1% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: September aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (September), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (September, +3.5%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −3.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
September has been the strongest, averaging +3.5% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade