The takeaway
Waste Connections Inc shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in March (+1.8%) and softest in September (−1.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 80% of years, averaging +2.8%, about +0.6 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Waste Connections Inc's most dependable month has been March, higher in 9 of 10 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+3.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−1.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is Waste Connections Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Waste Connections Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, March has closed higher 100% of the time versus 90% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) March return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and March is the anchor — it has closed higher in 9 of 10 Marches, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+1.8%) and median (+3.2%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even March ranges by 8.6% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — March has outpaced the S&P 500 by +0.7 points on average. Few peers keep such company in March — the typical stock clears it just 56% of the time.
March anchors a run, too: the March-through-May window has been the stock's reliable season. On the other side of the ledger, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−1.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in October, December, and September.
March has now closed higher 5 years running. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a stock this dependable in March, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the stock's best month (March), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The stock's months are fairly even — March is the firmest (+1.8%) and September the softest (−1.1%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
March has been the strongest, averaging +1.8% and closing higher in 9 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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