The takeaway
Warner Music Group shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 6 years of data — strongest in July (+9.1%) and softest in May (−10.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 83% of years, averaging +9.1%, about +7.0 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Warner Music Group's most dependable month has been July, higher in 5 of 6 years; May has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+7.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in May (−10.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is Warner Music Group’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Warner Music Group’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 80% of the time versus 83% across the last 6 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 6(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 6-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: July, up in 5 of 6 Julys while the other eleven tend to blur together.
The headline flatters a touch — its +9.1% average sits well above the +5.0% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Julys. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even July ranges by 9.0% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: July has cleared the S&P 500 by +7.0 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages July only about 61% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, October, and November have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: May has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−10.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in May, February, and April. Its roughest month on record was a −20.8% May in 2023 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 6-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (May), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2020 its best month (July, +9.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (May, −10.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +9.1% and closing higher in 5 of 6 years since 2020.
It's the weakest, averaging −10.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade