The takeaway
Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in June (0.0%) and softest in October (+0.2%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 60% of years, averaging +0.8%, roughly 1.4 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund's most dependable month has been June, higher in 7 of 10 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+1.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in December (−1.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, June has closed higher 80% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) June return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. June stands out, higher in 7 of 10 Junes, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (0.0%) and median (+0.8%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Set against the S&P 500, mind, June is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages June only about 52% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — May–July forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. On the other side of the ledger, October is the year's quietest corner, essentially flat on average, and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in December, March, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −36.9% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Junes run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: June aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (June), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — June is the firmest (0.0%) and October the softest (+0.2%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
June has been the strongest, averaging 0.0% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest month, but it has still averaged a small gain (+0.2%) — quiet rather than genuinely bad.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade