The takeaway
First Trust Nasdaq Oil & Gas ETF shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in July (+1.4%) and softest in April (+3.0%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 78% of years, averaging +1.4%, roughly 0.8 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
First Trust Nasdaq Oil & Gas ETF's most dependable month has been July, higher in 7 of 9 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 22% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+2.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in December (−2.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is First Trust Nasdaq Oil & Gas ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating First Trust Nasdaq Oil & Gas ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 80% of the time versus 78% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — July. It has closed higher in 7 of 9 Julys, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+1.4%) and median (+1.6%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Few months are steadier: July's returns vary by just 6.6% year to year. Few peers keep such company in July — the typical stock clears it just 61% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — January, March, and May have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, April is the year's low point, though even there the fund has stayed positive on average (+3.0%), a sign every month leans up, and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in December, March, and June. Its roughest month on record was a −33.8% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a fund this dependable in July, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the fund's best month (July), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — July is the firmest (+1.4%) and April the softest (+3.0%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
July has been the strongest, averaging +1.4% and closing higher in 7 of 9 years since 2016.
It's the weakest month, but it has still averaged a small gain (+3.0%) — quiet rather than genuinely bad.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade