The takeaway
Accel Entertainment Inc shows a slight seasonal lean over 9 years of data — strongest in May (−1.0%) and softest in October (−1.8%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 63% of years, averaging +2.9%, about +0.8 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Accel Entertainment Inc's most dependable month has been May, higher in 6 of 8 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 11% of the time.
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| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in August (+3.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−8.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is Accel Entertainment Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Accel Entertainment Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, May has closed higher 60% of the time versus 75% across the last 9 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) May return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: May, up in 6 of 8 Mays while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (−1.0%) and median (+0.6%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages May only about 55% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — April–July forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. On the other side of the ledger, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−1.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, September, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −37.4% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, May's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: May aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 9-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (May), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The stock's months are fairly even — May is the firmest (−1.0%) and October the softest (−1.8%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
May has been the strongest, averaging −1.0% and closing higher in 6 of 8 years since 2017.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade