The takeaway
Avantis® Emerging Markets Value ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in July (+1.6%) and softest in October (−2.0%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 100% of years, averaging +1.6%, roughly 0.5 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Avantis® Emerging Markets Value ETF's most dependable month has been July, higher in 4 of 4 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+1.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−3.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is Avantis® Emerging Markets Value ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Avantis® Emerging Markets Value ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 4 years, July has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 4 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: July, up in all 4 Julys while the other eleven tend to blur together.
A typical July brings +0.5%, a shade under the +1.6% average. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 2.1% spread), and even its worst July in 5 years lost only 0.3% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages July only about 61% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: March, April, and May have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−2.0%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in October, April, and February. Its roughest month on record was a −10.7% September in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 5-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (July), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2021 its best month (July, +1.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −2.0%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +1.6% and closing higher in all 4 years on record since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.0% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade