The takeaway
ETF Managers Group Commodity Trust I shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 3 years of data — strongest in January (+14.1%) and softest in December (−10.5%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 67% of years, averaging 0.0%, roughly 2.2 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
ETF Managers Group Commodity Trust I's most dependable month has been January, higher in 2 of 2 years; December has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+14.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in December (−11.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is ETF Managers Group Commodity Trust I’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating ETF Managers Group Commodity Trust I’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Not enough recent January history to say whether the pattern still holds.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 2 years versus the last 3(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 3-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — January. It has closed higher in all 2 Januaries, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+14.1%) and median (+14.1%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — January has outpaced the S&P 500 by +14.3 points on average. Few peers keep such company in January — the typical stock clears it just 53% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — March, June, and July have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, December has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−10.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in December, February, and August. Its roughest month on record was a −19.0% August in 2023 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
For a fund this dependable in January, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 3-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (January), its worst (December), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2023 its best month (January, +14.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (December, −10.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
January has been the strongest, averaging +14.1% and closing higher in all 2 years on record since 2023.
It's the weakest, averaging −10.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade