The takeaway
VanEck ChiNext ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in June (+3.7%) and softest in April (−3.2%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 40% of years, averaging +1.6%, roughly 0.5 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
VanEck ChiNext ETF's most dependable month has been June, higher in 7 of 10 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in February (+3.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−4.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is VanEck ChiNext ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating VanEck ChiNext ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, June has closed higher 60% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) June return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: June, up in 7 of 10 Junes while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+3.7%) and median (+4.1%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even June ranges by 8.5% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: June has cleared the S&P 500 by +3.5 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages June only about 52% of the time.
Only February comes anywhere near it for reliability. At the other end of the calendar, April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−3.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in April, March, and January. Its roughest month on record was a −18.0% April in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: June aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (June), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (June, +3.7%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −3.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
June has been the strongest, averaging +3.7% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade