The takeaway
Erie Indemnity Company shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in January (+1.6%) and softest in March (−2.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 70% of years, averaging +3.7%, about +1.5 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Erie Indemnity Company's most dependable month has been January, higher in 8 of 10 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in June (+4.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−3.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is Erie Indemnity Company’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Erie Indemnity Company’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, January has closed higher 60% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. January stands out, higher in 8 of 10 Januaries, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+1.6%) and median (+0.7%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 4.3% spread). Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: January has cleared the S&P 500 by +1.8 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages January only about 53% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: June, July, and September have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−2.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, April, and May. Its roughest month on record was a −16.6% October in 2024 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, January's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: January aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (January), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (January, +1.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −2.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
January has been the strongest, averaging +1.6% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade