The takeaway
Flagstar Financial, Inc. shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in November (+7.7%) and softest in March (−4.6%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 70% of years, averaging +6.5%, about +4.4 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Flagstar Financial, Inc.'s most dependable month has been November, higher in 9 of 10 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+5.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−5.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is Flagstar Financial, Inc.’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Flagstar Financial, Inc.’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 80% of the time versus 90% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: November, up in 9 of 10 Novembers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+7.7%) and median (+8.3%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: November has cleared the S&P 500 by +5.4 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages November only about 62% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: July and August have also closed higher more often than not. On the other side of the ledger, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−4.6%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, October, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −37.8% January in 2024 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, November's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: November aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (November, +7.7%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −4.6%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +7.7% and closing higher in 9 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.6% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade